As President Donald Trump celebrates his 80th birthday, a new state-by-state map reveals a familiar partisan divide, but with a twist: Trump's approval ratings are weaker than they were at the start of his second term. This map, based on a rolling poll of registered voters, shows a clear pattern of Trump's support waning across the country, especially in key battleground states. Here's a breakdown of the numbers and what they mean.
The Numbers Tell a Story
Trump's approval ratings are underwater in most states, with a net approval rating of negative across much of the battleground map. This is a stark contrast to the start of his second term, where he had a positive net approval in several states. The sharpest declines are seen in Kentucky, Montana, and Idaho, where Trump's support has plummeted by 27, 24, and 23 points, respectively.
The Republican Heartland Still Supports Trump, But by Less
Deep-red states still form Trump's strongest base, but the margins have narrowed sharply. Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, and West Virginia remain his best states, but with net approval ratings of +25, +15, +14, and +13, respectively. This is a significant drop from the start of his second term, where these states had much higher approval ratings.
Swing States Have Moved Further Against Him
The most politically significant movement is in the states that tend to decide national elections. Florida, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan have all moved further against Trump, with net approval ratings now in the negative range. This is a concerning trend for the former president, as these states were once key to his support.
The States Where Trump Has Fallen Most
The biggest declines are concentrated not just in Democratic states, but in places that initially gave him some of his strongest backing. Kentucky, Montana, Idaho, Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Nevada, Tennessee, and others have all seen significant drops in Trump's approval ratings. This is a worrying sign for the president, as these states were once key to his support.
Deep Blue States Remain Firmly Opposed
At the other end of the map, Trump's weakest states remain overwhelmingly negative. Hawaii, Vermont, Maryland, California, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington, and New York all have net approval ratings in the negative range. This entrenched opposition is holding firm, and Trump's support in these states remains weak.
The Middle of the Map Has Tightened
A notable feature of the current map is how many states now cluster close to the line between positive and negative territory. This suggests a map that is less stable than it looks at first glance, with many state-level margins thinner than at the start of the term. This could indicate a shift in public opinion, with Trump's support waning in key battleground states.
A Birthday Map That Looks Familiar, But Weaker
Trump's political map still looks broadly recognizable, with his strongest states in the Republican heartland and his weakest in solidly Democratic territory. However, the size of the margins has changed, with many states now narrowly positive, dead even, or clearly negative. This is a significant shift from the start of his second term, where Trump had a more comfortable lead in many of these states.
What the White House Says
The White House has pointed to Trump's 2024 election victory as the clearest measure of public support, with spokesperson Davis Ingle arguing that the result reflected a mandate from nearly 80 million voters. However, the current state-by-state map suggests that Trump's support is waning, and the margins are narrowing. This could be a sign of a changing public opinion, with Trump's agenda and policies being questioned by a growing number of Americans.
