The absence of Taiwan from Xi Jinping's meeting with Vladimir Putin is a telling contrast to the prominent role it played in his discussions with Donald Trump. This disparity highlights the nuanced approach China takes in its international relations, especially when dealing with neighboring countries and strategic allies. The differing approaches towards Taiwan underscore the complex dynamics within the region and the varying levels of influence China wields in different contexts.
Max Hess, founder of Enmetena Advisory, explains that Xi's reluctance to associate Taiwan with Russia's irredentist claims and actions is a strategic move. By avoiding this association, China avoids appearing belligerent and maintains a more balanced stance. This is particularly important given China's historical recognition of Ukraine's borders and its consistent stance on Taiwan's independence.
The Trump-Xi meeting, on the other hand, was marked by a more direct and public discussion of Taiwan. Xi emphasized the importance of handling the 'question' of Taiwan carefully, warning of potential clashes and conflicts if the issue is mishandled. This was seen as an attempt to influence the Trump administration's decision on a pending $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan, which China views as a significant irritant.
Melanie Hart, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, supports this interpretation, suggesting that Xi's comments were aimed at convincing Trump to delay or cancel the arms sale. This interpretation is supported by Trump's response, where he refused to directly answer Xi's question about US defense of Taiwan against a Chinese attack.
In contrast, the Xi-Putin meeting was characterized by a more relaxed and informal atmosphere. The focus was on bilateral relations and strategic cooperation, with no mention of Taiwan. This is not surprising, given Russia's consistent adherence to the 'one China' policy and the absence of any disagreement on Taiwan between the two leaders.
Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at risk consultancy Teneo, further emphasizes the focus on bilateral relations and the absence of any public disagreement on Taiwan. He notes that the summit prioritized pressing international issues, such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and that Taiwan was not a topic of discussion.
The differing approaches towards Taiwan demonstrate China's ability to navigate complex international relations. By avoiding direct confrontation and maintaining a balanced stance, China can foster better relationships with neighboring countries and strategic allies. This strategy is particularly evident in its interactions with Russia, where China's acquiescence to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and support for Iran's foreign policies reflect a pragmatic and calculated approach to international affairs.
